By Elisabeth Buchwald
Published: February 13, 2026, 5:30 AM ET
In a bold move that many thought would boost hiring, former President Donald Trump's administration aggressively cracked down on immigration, expecting a quick influx of native-born workers to fill gaps left by the exiting immigrant labor force. However, the hopes for a revitalized job market appear to have faltered. Recent statistics indicate that the anticipated benefits have not materialized, leaving American workers facing slower wage growth and rising unemployment.
Image Source: Megan Smith/Reuters
The Employment Outlook: A Dismal Picture
Despite the expectation that jobs would become more available to American workers, the reality has proven to be far more complex. In fact, employment trends reveal that American-born workers haven’t enjoyed the job growth that was projected. According to White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers, "In President Trump’s first year in office, all job growth went to American-born workers while job growth declined for foreign-born workers."
Labor Department data illustrates that 1 million jobs were filled by native-born workers at the same time as foreign employment saw a decline of 100,000.
Decreased Supply, Decreased Demand
One of the key findings in recent analyses is that the removal of immigrant workers has not only dimmed the job prospects for Americans but has also dampened consumer demand. A study found that between 200,000 and 1 million immigrants ceased work within the United States, coinciding with a significant uptick in deportations and stringent immigration enforcement.
Economists caution that the lack of immigrant workers has contributed to a rise in the overall unemployment rate, recorded at 4.7% in January compared to 4.1% a year prior. This is particularly significant as it exceeds the overall unemployment rate of 4.3%. Moreover, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers have shown a slowdown in growth.
Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, explains, “As net migration goes down and as deportations from the interior go up, you’re not just losing workers; you’re also losing customers of businesses that hire workers.”
Why Native-Born Workers Aren’t Filling the Gaps
Even in sectors where jobs remain unfilled, evidence suggests that native-born Americans are not taking these positions. According to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, “Immigrants are willing and able to do jobs that the overwhelming majority of our native-born population are simply not willing to do.”
The agriculture sector, in particular, relies heavily on immigrant labor, with an estimated quarter of all farm workers being unauthorized immigrants in the past year. Brusuelas attributes the discrepancy to a combination of native-born workers' preferences, skills, and education levels, which do not align with the realities of many available jobs.
External Economic Pressures
Compounding the situation are the economic impacts of tariffs and trade policy introduced during Trump’s administration. Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, notes that ongoing trade policy uncertainty is exacerbating job creation challenges. Businesses are hesitant to expand their workforce amid shifting tariff rates and rising material costs, particularly in manufacturing, which has lost almost 100,000 positions in recent months.
Technological Advances and Automation
Moreover, with the increasing pressure on businesses to optimize efficiency, many employers are turning to automation and artificial intelligence as cost-effective solutions. This transition has resulted in significant layoffs—most notably at Amazon—as firms seek to replace human labor with technological advancements. Reports from the Federal Reserve suggest companies are halting hiring to explore AI implementations instead.
As the story unfolds, it becomes increasingly clear that the immigration crackdown, rather than energizing the job market, has led to a perplexing stagnation for both native and foreign-born workers. With economic pressures mounting and automation reshaping the landscape, navigating the path to recovery and growth in the U.S. job market remains as challenging as ever.
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